Dark clouds are hanging over the camera market again?

BCN+R reports that despite the camera market recovery after the COVID years “dark clouds are once again looming over the market“. Here is a summary made by Digicameinfo:

• In recent years, sales of digital cameras have plummeted, with shipments also dropping sharply. After the COVID-19 pandemic, mirrorless cameras led the digital camera market, temporarily halting the decline. However, this was short-lived, and dark clouds are once again looming over the market, as prices for new mirrorless cameras have risen.
• It is well known that the main factor behind the decline in shipments is the spread of smartphones.

• Next, we will look at the trends in the penetration rate of digital cameras among all households, based on the Cabinet Office’s Consumer Trends Survey. From 2014 to 2016, it remained at the 60% level, but fell below 60% to 58.9% in 2017. The penetration rate has continued to decline since then, falling below 50% in 2022 and to 41.5% in 2012.

• Finally, let’s compare the penetration rate by age group of the household head. The rate has declined in all age groups, but it is particularly noticeable among younger people. The penetration rate for those under 29 was 69.5% in 2014, but fell by more than 50 points to 18.2% in 2024. Even for those in their 30s, it has fallen by just under 50 points in about 10 years, which is a major factor in pushing down the overall penetration rate.
• With the spread of smartphones, the number of people taking photos is steadily increasing, but statistics show that the number of people taking serious photos with digital cameras is decreasing.

The number of digital camera shipments has declined significantly since 2020, but has remained almost flat since 2022, so it seems that the contraction of the camera market has bottomed out. On the other hand, looking at the data on the penetration rate, it is expected to decline sharply in 2024, and the decline appears to be accelerating.
Looking at the digital camera ownership rate by age group, we can see that the ownership rate for younger generations is dropping sharply, but what is striking is that the ownership rate for those under 29 years old starts to rise again in 2024. This could be due to the boom in old and low-priced compact digital cameras among the younger generation.

In summary:
There might be a sort of self fulfilling prophecy mechanism: Camera manufacturers gave up the entry level market and developed expensive cameras. But they are too expensive for most people and so it’s hard to sell them in meaningful quantity. Companies should try to make sub $1000 cameras that are intriguing for the younger generation!