CIPA outlook for 2024: “outlook is less than bullish”

CIPA released a forecast for 2024. They think the market will slightly contract further with 4% less of camera shipments (in terms of numbers). Here is their full press text:

2024 Outlook on the Shipment by Product-Type Concerning Cameras and Related Goods

The Camera & Imaging Products Association (CIPA: President Hiroyuki Ikegami) has announced the outlook on the shipment by product-type concerning cameras and related goods for the 2024.

1. Track Record of Digital Camera Shipments 2023
While total shipments of digital cameras were 96.4% those of the previous year, and the mainstay “interchangeable-lens” type cameras were 101.2% and the leading mainstay “mirrorless” cameras were 118.6%, a two-digit growth.

In 2023 (January to December cumulative), the total shipments of digital cameras were 7,720,505 units, 96.4% of the previous year. (The attached “Outlook” table shows the figures in units of 10,000.). However, shipments of interchangeable-lens digital cameras, which account for 78% of total shipments, were 5,998,913 units, 101.2% of the previous year. Moreover, those of the leading mainstay, mirrorless cameras, which account for 81% of interchangeable-lens digital cameras, reached 4,832,813 units, 118.6% of the previous year. Now that an enormous number of people are immediately becoming well-versed in photos and heavy photo users by taking a lot of photos continuously as soon as they have a smartphone in hand, interchangeable-lens digital cameras and mirrorless cameras are a receptacle for

Shipments to China and other regions: more than 100% of the previous years, even for digital cameras in total

Shipments of mirrorless cameras were more than 100% of the previous years in all regions. However, as for those of digital cameras in total, there were clear differences among regions.
Shipments to Japan were 98.1%, to Asia (except for Japan and China) 98.2%, to Europe 80.8% and to the Americas 94.3%. In contrast, shipments to China were 124.7%, and to other regions 104.0%.
As for China, while there were some negative reports on general economic trends in 2023, the digital camera market performed well or quite well. As decreases in shipments to Japan and Asia (except for Japan and China) were less than 2%, total shipments to Japan, China, and Asia (except for Japan and China), or shipments to all Asian destinations, now account for almost half, 46.1%, of total shipments worldwide. Although shipments of digital cameras in total were less than the previous year, it should be noted that by category, mirrorless cameras remain popular and that by region, China and other regions are gaining momentum.

2. Shipments of Interchangeable Lenses in 2023. Total shipments of interchangeable lenses were 99.1% of the previous year, a slight decrease. Shipments of lenses for cameras of a format smaller than 35mm were 100.1%.

The total shipments of interchangeable lenses were 9,638,752 units, 99.1% of the previous year. While the figure slightly decreased, it exceeded 1.6 times that of interchangeable-lens digital cameras (body only) (for every interchangeable-lens digital camera, 1.6 units of interchangeable lenses were shipped in 2023). They continued to make a presence as another mainstay product that determines the range of expression with digital cameras. By category, lenses for cameras of a format smaller than 35mm, such as APS-C and Micro Four Thirds for lightweight and compact-sized interchangeable-lens digital cameras, were shipped in higher quantities than the previous year.

3. Shipping Outlook 2024

Total digital camera shipments in 2024 (from January to December cumulative) are expected to be 7.41 million units, which is 96.0% of the previous year, including 860,000 units or 94.5% to Japan,
and 6.55 million units or 96.2% to countries other than Japan.
By category, the total shipments of interchangeable-lens digital cameras are expected to be 5.89 million units, which is 98.2% of the previous year, including 510,000 units or 98.1% to Japan, and 5.38 million units or 98.2% to countries other than Japan, and that of digital cameras with built-in lens is 1.52 million units or 88.4%, including 350,000 units or 89.7% to Japan, and 1.17 million units or 88.0% to countries other than Japan.
As for interchangeable-lens digital cameras, it is 9.57 million units or 99.3% of the previous year, including 1.03 million units or 100.0% to Japan, and 8.54 million units or 99.3% to countries other than Japan. As the market experienced a slowdown slightly toward the end of 2023, this outlook is less than bullish. However, digital cameras are items closely connected to “outdoor demands” and “outing demands.” In association with the current trend breaking away from the COVID-19 pandemic, further growth is expected.